Ghost Stories Ep39: The only free lunch in investing (with Kingsley Williams, CIO at Satrix)

Episode 39 June 03, 2024 00:32:05
Ghost Stories Ep39: The only free lunch in investing (with Kingsley Williams, CIO at Satrix)
Ghost Stories
Ghost Stories Ep39: The only free lunch in investing (with Kingsley Williams, CIO at Satrix)

Jun 03 2024 | 00:32:05

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Show Notes

With volatility as the theme in markets in a year of elections, it's important to keep your head as an equity investor. Take a long-term view and let the market do its job.

Easier said than done, of course.

To assist with practical tips and important insights into key principles in investing (ranging from more basic concepts through to advanced topics like cyclically-adjusted P/E ratios), Kingsley Williams (Chief Investment Officer at Satrix)* joined The Finance Ghost on this podcast.

The only free lunch in investing is diversification. This podcast will help you understand why, brought to you by Satrix.

There’s so much to listen to in this podcast, underpinned by Satrix’s commitment to South African investor education. To find out more about SatrixNOW, visit this link>>>

*Satrix is a division of Sanlam Investment Management

 

Disclaimer

Satrix Investments (Pty) Ltd is an approved FSP in terms of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act (FAIS). The information does not constitute advice as contemplated in FAIS. Use or rely on this information at your own risk. Consult your Financial Adviser before making an investment decision.

Satrix Managers (RF) (Pty) Ltd (Satrix) is a registered and approved Manager in Collective Investment Schemes in Securities.

While every effort has been made to ensure the reasonableness and accuracy of the information contained in this document (“the information”), the FSPs, their shareholders, subsidiaries, clients, agents, officers and employees do not make any representations or warranties regarding the accuracy or suitability of the information and shall not be held responsible and disclaim all liability for any loss, liability and damage whatsoever suffered as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to any use of or reliance upon the information. 

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Episode Transcript

[00:00:00] Speaker A: This episode of Ghost stories is brought to you by Satrix, the leading provider of index tracking solutions in South Africa and a proud partner of Ghostmail. With no minimums and easy low cost access to local and global products via the SatrixNow online investment platform, everyone can own the market. Visit Sattrix dot co dot Za for more information. Welcome to another episode of the Ghost Stories podcast. This is being recorded just after the elections in South Africa. So of course that is what is on everyone's mind. Before getting onto this podcast I had to actually stop myself laughing because of all the memes I was seeing on Twitter. Now x got to say that of all the social media platforms that is the place to be during something like an election. It really is just the very best content. But of course we need a serious face for this chat KInsLEY and you know, that's a good time to point out that Kinsley Williams or Satrix is joining me on this discussion and those election headlines are exactly why we are here, right? So you wrote a piece that went into Ghost mail earlier this month about, you know, just managing your head, I suppose, not losing your head through all the volatility, through all the chaos in the headlines. The memes are one thing, but there's plenty of fear mongering, there's lots of scariness. I mean, just today we're seeing retailers on the JC are down hard. The bond yields have been all over the place. The rand has been all over the place. Welcome to volatility which is of course part of investing. So KINsley thank you very much for joining on this podcast and I'm very excited as always to tap into your experience. [00:01:27] Speaker B: Thanks for having me, ghost and looking forward to the conversation. We definitely do know how to laugh at ourselves on on X and Twitter. So it helps manage the chaos I guess. [00:01:36] Speaker A: Yes. No, I think that's the best thing about South Africans is I think we deal with so much but we are so very good at just pointing a bit of fun at things where I think people overseas just think how can you laugh at that? And then we do things like laugh at people overseas. I really enjoyed Rishi announcing the UK election in the rain. I thought that was the most british thing I've ever seen in my life. They send him out in his suit into the pouring rain to announce an election day. Politics everywhere just chaotic. And maybe that's a good place to start actually because I think as South Africans we do fall into this trap of everything here is broken, everything overseas is perfect. There was a huge immigration wave of people who went overseas in the hope of a better life. And a lot of them got it right and a lot of them frankly, didn't. And the more people you actually speak to and the more you travel and the more worldly you become as you get older, you realize, or at least I have, I'm interested to get your view. There's a lot of opportunity in South Africa and there's a lot of stuff to feel good about. There's a lot of stuff to feel very upset about. But on the whole, you know, nowhere is perfect, right? [00:02:37] Speaker B: No, 100%. I was actually very, very fortunate to have spent about 18 months overseas, both in the US, in New York and in London for just over a year. About 13 months in the UK at the start of my career. But those were probably before you started working. I don't know, that was early. Two thousands. Some say I was responsible for the.com bubble and crash because I was working in technology in New York at the time, not in financial services. Well, not on the trading floor. [00:03:05] Speaker A: That must have been amazing. [00:03:06] Speaker B: Well, I was working on the trading floor but on the technology side, so not, not actually pulling the trigger on any trades, but yeah, so I had nothing to do with the global financial or, sorry, the global.com bubble and that bursting. But yeah, I mean. I mean obviously South Africa was at a very different place back then. The economy was growing, there was real growth. Our market was absolutely smashing it relative to what other markets were doing. I mean, you look at a cumulative chart going back to the early two thousands and plot that relative to the likes of S and P 500 or MSCI World, it looks nothing like what it's looked like for the last 1012 years. Post the global financial crisis where it's all been offshore, it's been driving markets and we've been rather pedestrian. But yeah, I mean my heart was to actually come back to South Africa and it's worked out very well for me personally. And, yeah, I think there's a lot to be said for being home and I think when Africa gets into your blood, as much as we've got numerous problems here, it's always wonderful to come back and enjoy the quality of life that we do have here, warts and all. [00:04:18] Speaker A: Yeah, absolutely. I couldn't agree more. And of course that two thousands bull market is what created a lot of the financial infrastructure we know and love today. There were loads more companies listed on the JSE. Unfortunately, the trend in that has been very much down since then. The rand, if you one of the younger listeners to this podcast. If you go and look at what the rand was trading at to the dollar in the two thousands when FIFA was the unofficial president for those last few years leading up to the World cup, it's quite depressing, obviously. But yes. Then of course Wall street broke the world after the tech guys broke the world a few years prior, and emerging markets have struggled since then, but especially, I think, South Africa. And yet, despite all of that, you have to recognize that all emerging markets are volatile things and they have the potential to do well. I think you just have to learn to trade a bit more carefully, but also to try and lift your head sometimes from just the noise, and to recognize that often the noise creates an opportunity as opposed to something to panic about. Which was really the gist of your article, you know, that was in Ghost mail recently, was to say, just be careful. Trying to be too clever with timing. The market and the panic selling and everything else. I mean, these over time become quite value destructive activities and unfortunately it's a trap that people fall into all the time. [00:05:36] Speaker B: Yeah, I mean, as you're chatting through that, I'm reminded of another quote by Eugene Farmer. So I'm really going to name drop here. I was very fortunate to spend three months at the University of Chicago's graduate school of Business. Now it's called the Booth School of Business, which is where Eugene Farmer is a professor and he's a Nobel Prize winner as well, in finance. But I came across a quote of his fairly recently where he was making the point, I'm going to paraphrase, I can't remember exactly how he phrased it, but he was making the point that if you start getting anxious about volatility in equity markets, then you probably shouldn't have been invested in equity markets in the first place. It is the norm. It comes with the territory of investing in risky, growth type equity linked instruments. Volatility is part and parcel of the package. It's the norm, it's not the exception. It should be expected. And so one needs to think very carefully about how you structure your portfolio. Are you positioning it on the basis of perhaps a recent period where the market has only been going in one direction with unusually low volatility? Or are you looking at the full history of what markets are typically going to deliver and they are inherently risky. You can lose capital and you should be invested for a long period of time. I think those are some of the the things almost a bit like death and taxes that never change when you're investing in equity markets. That is part and parcel of the journey that you're signing up for. And you need to be willing to be invested for a material portion of time for the long term, in excess of five years, ideally ten years or longer. [00:07:23] Speaker A: Yeah, absolutely. Otherwise you need to be able to look at this and say, hey, I'm a short term trader, but that's a completely different skill set, I think, where people really hurt themselves as they go, I'm an investor, but then they behave like a trader. And those two things can be very, very, very dangerous. If you are trading, then recognize that that is what you are doing and it's a completely different skill. It's a great skill and it's a lot of fun, but it's not the same as investing. And I think that's one of the main challenges. Right? [00:07:49] Speaker B: Correct. Yeah. So maybe one way of looking at it is, you know, if you're investing, you want to be building up an asset base, letting compounding and time in the market work its magic and ultimately build up that wealth base and asset base for some future goal, ideally retirement. But you might have other longer term goals that youre investing for. Whereas I see trading as almost a business. Right. Its something that youre making a return on every day or trying to make a return on every day. So its a very different mindset. Investing is putting money away as a nest egg for you at some later point. Trading is almost a daily business, which, as you rightly pointed out, is a very different type of endeavor. [00:08:33] Speaker A: Absolutely. And you won't often hear traders. Well, you will, I suppose, hear them talk about position sizing, which is kind of a diversification thing. It's like a value at risk. But in investing, you'll hear people talk about diversification primarily, which is a combination of position sizing and also where your money is just as simple as that. In the last week or so, Bitcorp produced an update, and I thought it was really interesting because Bitcorp is one of our true global success stories. So it's the food services giant that was basically incubated in bitvest. They make very little of their money in South Africa. They are all over the show, which is just wonderful. And they are still doing loads of bolt on acquisitions. And interestingly enough, they did another acquisition here. One of the other things that they mentioned in their recent update was that South Africa is actually one of the standout emerging markets right now in terms of how it's performing. So there's Bitcorp sitting with this whole lens on the world. And yes, they are south african at heart. But they've got people everywhere in the world scouting for opportunities, clearly. And they are still happy to allocate capital to South Africa, which I think tells you something about the importance of just because us tech has had this incredible couple of years, it doesn't mean it'll do that forever. And it can't do those compound annual growth rates forever. It's just not possible. Go and look at Apple and go look how much of their returns over the past decade has been from earnings growth and how much has been from multiple expansion. The multiple expansion has a ceiling. There's only so much that someone is willing to pay per dollar of earnings that comes out of Apple. That's just how it is. I'm definitely not saying that Apple is going to necessarily or guarantee be a disappointment or anything like that. I have a bunch of us stocks in my portfolio. But you've got to be super careful about extrapolating, you know, the age of the smartphone forever and extrapolating that South Africa is going to underperform forever. If a business like Bitcorp can see the value in doing another acquisition here and building a global base, would you agree that that's probably the way people should also think about their equity portfolio, as it really helps to actually be diversified and to have both local and global exposure, rather than assuming that something will always be good or always be bad? [00:10:40] Speaker B: Yeah. So one of the things, such as you were touching on multiples, which I think is a very important point to unpack, is there's some research done by Schiller. I stand to be corrected. He may have also won a Nobel Prize in finance, but he came up with this concept called the cyclically adjusted PE ratio, sort of abbreviated as the Cape. And basically it's a ten year average price earnings ratio. And the research that he showed or did confirm that theres a very high correlation between what that long term PE ratio, average PE ratio is over time versus subsequent returns, the subsequent ten year returns. And so to your point, the US is trading at all time high PE ratios, which gives us an indication that future returns over the next ten years are likely to be depressed. Because where is that growth going to come from to sustain such a high PE ratio? So yes, we take the point. The US is one of the most innovative countries and very market friendly. And so it probably has the greatest potential to unlock future earnings and future growth. But growth is not infinite. There's fundamental underpins to unlocking growth and that can't continue indefinitely. And given where the US market is trading now from a PE ratio perspective and a valuation perspective relative to the history of the US itself, which has always been an innovative market that has been at the forefront of driving economic growth. It's very unlikely that it's going to deliver outsized returns over the next ten years relative to very depressed markets such as our own, such as South Africa, which is trading at very low pe ratios, which again by our own history provides a good indication that there should be outsized returns going forward. Given that our market is pretty much priced for, I don't know if the right term is to say perfection to deliver those outsized returns because it is so depressed at the moment in terms of the valuations that our local market is commanding. So yeah, I do think, I do think there's a lot of opportunity in South Africa. But again, you wouldn't want to have all your long term investments pinned on one economy, particularly the south african economy being so small relative to the global opportunity set that is available. Just as you were also talking about, you know, Bitcorp and where they're finding opportunities. I watched an interview with Shaun Summers and Alec Hogg a while ago, which I thought was, was fascinating after he'd recently taken the helm at pick and pay. And they're obviously going through some of their own challenges in restructuring that business and positioning it to gain its historical place that it used to have within the retail landscape in South Africa. And he was just making the point about coming back to our first topic of conversation around where to live and considering emigrating and being based know in a developed market. And he made the point around it's a lot easier to make. What's the current exchange rate? 24 rand to a pound, give or take. It's a lot easier to make 24 reals net profit here in South Africa than it is to make a pound net profit in the UK. So yeah, I think there is a lot of opportunity. The market is not as competitive here as you would find in developed markets. And that that creates the opportunity for businesses to solve problems, to meet customers needs, which is essentially what business is all about. It's solving a need and earning a return for doing so and for taking that risk. So there definitely is a lot of opportunity in South Africa and good growth prospects given the valuations that our market's commanding at the moment. [00:14:39] Speaker A: Yeah, absolutely. And this is where ETF's are interesting tools, is to plug those gaps and to give you the broad exposure where you specifically want single stock exposure. You can then take that on top of your underlying ETF building blocks thats certainly the way I use ETF's is basically building blocks for a portfolio. Its that beautiful equity exposure with one click across a whole bunch of things. And then where you want to take single stock positions, which obviously is a particular passion point of mine, but takes a lot of time and effort as opposed to just building out that equity exposure over time. Theres loads of ways to diversify within the ETF's as well. And you know, it's important to do that over time because I think when things then happen like, you know, scary headlines or elections in a particular country or whatever, you're not sitting with absolutely every cent you've ever made in, you know, south african retailers down 5% today or whatever the case is. And then you panic and you go, geez, this is going to zero. I'm going to sell everything, you know, take a 5% bath and then a week later it's back and you go, oh, you know, this is so, this is so frustrating. I mean, the one I'm kicking myself on so much is bytes technology. I didn't sell after their whole disaster with their ex CEO and all those undisclosed trades. But I should absolutely have bought more. I don't know why I didn't. It was so obvious. Like the share price panicked because the CEO made some bad trades. I mean, he's not the business. He will leave and someone else will come in anyway. Hindsight is perfect, but rather, rather the hindsight is, oh, I wish I'd taken advantage of that and made money, as opposed to, oh my gosh, I sold everything and panicked and now here I am sitting in cash and ive given up 20% returns and incurred transaction fees and tax and everything else, right? [00:16:17] Speaker B: Yep. And I think this talks exactly to Buffett's quote around, you know, being contrarian. So I think we should, we should unpack his quote in more detail because his quote is often used as the raison d'etre or a call to be active and to be contrarian. He was actually making the point that you're probably going to be best served by holding the broad market almost on a passive basis. I never like referring to any investing as passive. It all requires active decisions. But just owning the market, as our payoff line says, just owning the broad market and let the market do its work. But if you really, really still want to be, be active, well then, then be contrarian. Buy when everyone else is selling. Like when Cecil had been decimated down to, I can't remember what its low was. I think it was like 20 something rand at a point, that's the time to be buying, right? That's the time to be piling it. [00:17:18] Speaker A: That's one that I bought. [00:17:19] Speaker B: Okay, well done. [00:17:20] Speaker A: That one I got. [00:17:21] Speaker B: Yeah. So, you know, if you're going to be contrarian, you know, if you're going to be active, be contrarian. And this is really the underpin of value investing. It's buying the unloved stocks, it's buying the unloved markets like South Africa, because that's where the rerating potential in stocks or in broad indices can occur. You just need a little bit of confidence to creep back in for there to be risk on globally, which could happen when interest rates start getting cut, potentially for some positive policies to be implemented locally that are market friendly, for that confidence to start creeping in. And then it's not that companies need to be earning anymore or making any more profits, just that multiple, that PE ratio can kick up and that can unlock enormous returns going forward. So, yeah, I think letting the market do its job has a huge role to play, but that doesn't mean that there aren't opportunities from being contrarian. The other thing I also wanted to just mention around single stocks is we were chatting to a client, and I hope you won't mind me repeating the story. I won't mention his name, but he was looking at wanting to get rand play exposure. So buying the SA Inc. Type stocks into his portfolio, which he did do. But the problem with single stocks, or only a handful of single stocks, is that your fortunes are very much tied to idiosyncratic factors associated with those specific companies. So if you're looking at getting a broad style or theme expressed in your portfolio, that, yeah, I want to own SA Inc. Type stocks because I think the rand is going to strengthen. For example, if you only have a very concentrated portfolio expressing that theme, that theme may indeed play out, but you can be completely derailed with idiosyncratic events and drivers affecting those specific companies that have nothing to do with that broad theme. So again, this talks to why you want to have a broad portfolio, which an ETF or an index fund offers you to capture that type of theme. So that even if there is idiosyncratic noise or some stock specific anomaly that occurs that isn't your entire portfolio or your entire trade that's being carried out by that, you're expressing that view with a broad portfolio. [00:19:52] Speaker A: I can give you another perfect example of that is gold miners. So you could have had this view to say, oh, gold is going up. And then you went and picked one gold miner and then that gold miner has some major weather event or some operational disaster. And then you watch gold tick up exactly like you thought it was going to and you watch all the other miners tick up beautifully, normally in excess of the gold price because of operating leverage and everything else, you can get a leveraged up exposure to what happens there. And meanwhile you are languishing because you, you were unlucky and you picked the wrong one, you know? So yeah, it really does depend why you're investing. I think if you are trying to get a theme, then doing it through one company, not necessarily the right way to go, you know, if you're trying to get to a specific company's story and often something like where it's trading in terms of average multiple, I mean, that should absolutely be part of your investment decision. And unfortunately that data is not easy to get. So I subscribe to Ticker. So that's one of the better ways to get a Bloomberg light or a capital IQ light for a retail investor. It still costs money, but at least I can go and do stuff like pull average valuations over time. I mean, without that knowledge, you go and look at a point estimate. Okay, it's on a pe of eight. Oh great. What does that mean? Has it historically been on a pe of six? Has it historically been on pe of ten? Where are you versus the average? What is the likely mean reversion on this multiple? And what does that mean for you? Because you can have a situation where earnings growth is really strong, but if the multiple was too high and it unwinds down to its average, you're going to get a pretty, pretty dire return anyway. The other mistake that people make is they look at the dividend yield and they think, wow, there's this great juicy dividend yield. This thing's going to pay me 8% a year just for being there, let alone the capital growth. But then they don't think about the capital growth. So british american tobacco, exhibit a, something I'm relatively bearish on because yes, it pays a good divvy, but what is happening to their customer base? I mean, we know what's happening to their customer base, right? So there's every chance that the share price performs poorly over time. Yes, they pay you dividends along the way. What does your total return look like? And where else could you have gotten a better total return than that for taking single stock risk? Because the other thing, which, you know, talks to your point about the risks is if the index will pay you 10% but a single stock is paying you 10%. You're not winning by owning the single stock. You're not even. It's not even a draw. You've actually lost because on a risk adjusted basis, you've done worse. Single stocks need to offer you materially more than the index, right? [00:22:26] Speaker B: Yeah, and the other big risk, just talking about dividends. But I guess any, any metric that you look at based on reported financial statements is that they're backwards looking. So it's not to say that there isn't a premium. By looking at that data, I mean, we harvest valuation premiums, momentum premiums, quality premiums that are available in the market by looking at reported information on these companies. But the important thing is that it needs to be a broadly diversified portfolio because of the risk in individual companies. It might look like a great value stock, but it could be a value trap. Similarly, it might be a great dividend payer, but if you're looking at what the historical dividend yield is, there's absolutely no guarantee that that company will declare a similar dividend at the next payout period, particularly if their earnings are under pressure, they're going to start cutting that. So you're looking at something that looks fantastic in terms of where the market's pricing that stock now and what the yield is going to be. But there's no guarantee that that yield is going to be paid in the next dividend round. So, again, very important to diversify. Diversify, diversify. It's the only free lunch you get in investing, because we just cannot predict these once off idiosyncratic type risks. There could be a disaster, a mining disaster, or some dam bursts its banks and takes out whatever. These things are not predictable. That's exactly why you want to diversify your investments in your portfolio, to hedge yourself against those risks and then let the market do its work. In terms of how you're structuring your portfolio, where you're capturing themes or styles in a broadly diversified way. [00:24:07] Speaker A: Absolutely. I love all of that, and I think just conscious of time, because it has flown. While we're having fun here, I think I'd like to finish off this podcast is to just talk about some of your advice, maybe for the listeners around managing their behavioral bias to panic. So you read a tough headline and you think, oh, my goodness, this is it. Let me get my money out while I can. What sort of advice have you got for the listeners on just keeping their heads in difficult situations in specifically, equity markets, although fixed income can dish that up, too. But generally, institutions are dealing with fixed income volatility because of the nature of investing in bonds. Having said that, we've done some great shows with Sia on bond ETF's at statrics, so you can get involved in that, too. And it's a very interesting thing to look at. It's not just equity volatility, actually, it's any investment volatility. What would your advice be to help people avoid panicking? [00:24:57] Speaker B: So I think it starts with having a plan at the outset, like knowing why you're investing, knowing how long you're investing for, to achieve that particular goal. Now, once you know those things, you can then start structuring your portfolio in an appropriate way, you know, in relation to that term, you know, if you're saving for your retirement in 20 years time, for example, to my earlier point and the point that Eugene farmer made, volatility will come with that territory if you're exposed to risky assets, and if you're worried about that volatility, well, then you shouldn't have been in risky assets in the first place. It is part and parcel of what, what investing in risky assets comes with. So I think that's the, that's the first point. Have a plan and know what your, what your term is for investing. So, you know, your pension fund and your ras and all of those types of things which are really only designed for access once you retire. Those you shouldn't be worried about. Decide what your investment strategy is going to be and then let the market take its course. Obviously, if your circumstances change or you come up with a different approach to the way you want to achieve your investment goals, well, then by all means reflect that in your portfolio. But hopefully your plans are reasonably future proof and are not hinging on current news. It's more long term in nature. But yeah, just some practical things, I think. Resist the urge to act. The analogy we use is, or that I often like to refer to as changing lanes in traffic, trying to get an edge. Yeah, you might get there a bit quicker, but you're definitely going to use a lot more fuel. You're probably going to be a lot more stressed by the time you get to your destination, and then it's not a guarantee that you're going to get there much quicker. You do see people weaving out and in fact, you may not get there at all because you might end up causing an accident. So just resist the urge to act. Stick to your long term plan. Very important. Don't chase past winners because that's to our earlier topics of conversation. You actually want to be buying the ones that are in distress. That's what unlocks the outsized returns, not necessarily chasing the past winners. If you are going to chase past winners, like in a momentum type strategy, you have to be very disciplined at constantly doing that and churning your portfolio. I mean, we do run a momentum strategy in both ETF and unit trust form. We employ momentum as a style within our multi factor portfolios, so it can be harnessed, but it requires a lot of discipline and rigor. And again, managing risk, very important because what's the saying that Niku always uses? Momentum's your friend until the bend at the end. So watch out for that bend, watch out for that market event that you can't predict that is going to carry you out on a momentum type strategy. And then the other thing which is very important comes back to your plan is not being too defensive. If you've got time on your side, use that time to advantage. Use the power of equity markets, which over the long term are your best option for delivering inflation beating returns or the highest inflation beating returns. If you're worried about volatility, but you've got 20, 10, 20 years of time to invest for being too conservative is actually your biggest risk. It's a bit of a oxymoron. You're trying to manage risk, but your biggest risk is being too conservative because you've got time on your side and the longer you give your investments, the less risky they become. [00:28:23] Speaker A: Yeah, I mean, that's the analog, you know, your driving analogy, that would be leaving your car in the garage and just never going anywhere because you don't have to think about the lanes. So yeah, I agree, that's not a great outcome either. And the last thing I'll leave people with is just, I think that distinguishing between saving and investing helps you so much with managing the volatility. You can't save into equities. That is not saving, that is investing. Saving is what you do in your call account with your bank. So that when something breaks in your house or you need to upgrade your car or you need to pay school fees or whatever it is you want to do, go overseas, that comes out of your savings account. Investing is what you do with the rest of your money. So I hate the terms. Tax free savings account kills me. It should be tax free investing accounts. It drives completely the wrong behavior to call it a TFSA, but unfortunately that's the root government took with it. But yeah, that's the thing to understand is the money that goes into the equity market is money that you are going to pull down on in a long time from now. It's not savings. And I think if you do that, you manage so much of the volatility. [00:29:23] Speaker B: Yeah, and maybe just one other point that we didn't really get to touch on ghost, was just how structuring your portfolio, which to my earlier point was coming up with a plan. To the extent that that is well diversified, it will smooth out that volatility because you're not going to be exposed to one driver or one style or one theme, which may or may not do well. You're going to be exposed to different asset classes, different themes, different styles, which all pay off at different times. And to the extent that they're lowly or negatively correlated with each other helps to smooth that overall portfolio experience. And that helps manage the investor behavior, because now, whenever you do happen to look at your portfolio, you're not seeing it having lost whatever crazy percent of value, because by its design, it is well diversified. And so when global equities or us tech is shooting the lights out, that's counteracting the fact that bonds may have caused a drag. But similarly, if us tech goes through a wobble, that's hopefully going to be counteracted by having bonds in your portfolio. So again, designing a well diversified portfolio helps to actually manage those behavioral biases so that you're less inclined to want to act because it's giving you a far more smooth return profile. [00:30:44] Speaker A: Kinsey, thank you so much for your time on this podcast. I've really enjoyed it. I think tons of great insights shared here. So thank you for that. And to our listeners, we're going to start releasing these podcasts with full transcripts because I think there's a strong proportion of people who want to read the content now as well as listen to it, or instead of listen to it if they're struggling to find the time. So keep an eye out for transcripts going forward. If you've made it this far, you've been listening to it anyway. But just for future notice, there's, there will be transcripts and Kinsey, thank you for these insights. It's been really great to have you back on the show. All the best in the markets, and I've no doubt we'll do this again. And if people do want to reach out to you, you are on LinkedIn from memory. [00:31:23] Speaker B: That's correct. And yeah, thanks very much for having me. Been great to engage with you and speak to your fan base, your listeners. [00:31:30] Speaker A: And for final comment, Robert Schiller won the 2013 Nobel Prize for economics at the same time as Eugene Farmer and a gentleman called Lars Peter Hansen, who sounds like a rally driver, but he's clearly a bit more interesting than that and does some economic stuff as well. So Kinsey, thank you so much for your time. We will do this again. [00:31:48] Speaker B: Amazing. Thanks. [00:31:48] Speaker A: Ghost Satrix Investments Pty Limited and Satrix managers RF Pty Limited are authorized financial services providers. Nothing you have heard in this podcast should be construed as advice. Please do your own research and visit the Satrix website for more information on all their ETF products.

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Ghost Stories Ep23: Unpacking the African Bank Strategy (with CEO Kennedy Bungane)

After I wrote critically about the pricing of African Bank’s deal to acquire two businesses out of Sasfin, the company contacted me to discuss...

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Episode 20

September 03, 2023 00:45:37
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Ghost Stories Ep20: Dividends - Delights and Dangers (with Nico Katzke of Satrix)

Are dividends always worth celebrating? Does a company paying a dividend really reward shareholders, or is this just shuffling money around? These are the...

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Episode 41

July 12, 2024 00:33:59
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Ghost Stories #41: Investec Rand Nikkei 225 Autocall | Investec Dollar Euro Stoxx 50 Autocall

For investors who are looking for Japanese (Nikkei 225) or European (Euro Stoxx 50) exposure, Investec has launched two new structured products that provide...

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